On Friday October 1, 2010 Nigeria’s Independence Day Celebration was tarnished by a double car bomb explosion in the capital city of Abuja. 12 people lost their lives in the attack, and several others were injured. The movement for the emancipation of the Niger delta or MEND as they are commonly referred to claimed responsibility for the attack. Outside of being a national tragedy, these attacks have even further complicated the highly contentious Nigerian Presidential race.
To fully understand the issue it is necessary to go back the 2007 Presidential elections. One of the most significant political issues of the time was the Niger Delta. As has been well documented, the Niger Delta accounts for the overwhelming majority of Nigeria’s oil wealth, but the region remains severely underdeveloped. Additionally the region has suffered massive amounts of pollution from oil spills, which have destroyed fisheries and farmlands. This is eliminating the indigenous people’s livelihood, and their ability to improve their standard of living. Several international NGO’s and local Nigerian civic groups have brought this issue to light, and were able to get Nigerian politicians to address this serious issue.
To demonstrate his commitment to fixing the problems of the Niger Delta then presidential candidate Umaru Yar’Adua, picked Goodluck Jonathon who is originally from the region to be his running mate on the powerful People’s Democratic Party(PDP) ticket. After the two won the election they were able to negotiate with MEND and offered amnesty for those willing to lay down their weapons. They also created a Ministry of the Niger Delta to address specific development concerns in the region. These initiatives by the Yar’Adua administration showed signs of initial progress leading some to believe that oil production would soon return to its optimal level.
This progress suffered a major setback after the untimely death of President Yar’Adua. His sudden death has threatened to offset the balance of power or elite consensus agreed upon in Nigeria to keep the peace. The unwritten agreement is that the North and South will rotate turns manning the presidency of the country. When Yar’Adua died it put the international spotlight on Nigeria and forced the nation to abide by the constitutional rules of succession and allow Goodluck Jonathan to become president even though it is against their unwritten agreement. Many hoped that he would agree to not re-run for office in the 2011 elections but he has decided to do so anyways. The decision has caused lots of controversy because it is widely considered the North’s turn to rule.
The Independence Day car bombing has become a major issue in the Nigerian political debate particularly between president Jonathon and his main rival for the PDP nomination Northerner Ibrahim Babangida. Reports have surfaced that President Jonathon’s administration tried to pressure exiled MEND leader Henry Okah to retract his group’s claim of responsibility for the attack and instead say it was carried out by “Northern extremist who opposed President Jonathon.” Additionally the head of Ibrahim Babangida’s presidential campaign, Raymond Dokpesi was arrested and accused of having sent e-mails to members of MEND confirming the attack. He was later released and has threatened to sue the government over his detention. Dokpesi also claims that his family has received threats from members of MEND and people he describes as Jonathon’s supporters.
Although at this point it is uncertain who was really behind these attacks what is clear is that both sides are attempting to benefit from it politically. If members of MEND are ultimately found to be responsible then it will undermine President Jonathon’s credibility as someone who can handle the militants in the Delta. If it was Northerners behind the attack it will play into fears of extremism and make Babangida a less appealing candidate.
MEND issued its latest threat on October15th. The group said it will carry fresh bombing attacks in Abuja without specifying the time and day to prove to the Jonathan’s administration that they were behind the October1st blasts although President Jonathan seems to be accusing an outside terrorist organization, or political opponents for the attacks. In response, MEND has accused Jonathan of arresting innocent people for their attacks.
At the end of the day it will be up to the Nigerian people to choose who they want to lead their nation over the course of the next presidential term. The elections were originally scheduled to take place in January of 2011 but they have currently been postponed to April 2011. Only time will tell who will emerge as the next leader of Africa’s most populous nation.
